Friday, May 20, 2011


Yesterday I met a lady whom I recognized and she recognized me. She had been in my Sunday School class 30 years ago. She told me about her life and that she had tried to commit suicide 3 times and she remembered what I told her in class and it helped her not go through with it.

She also told me another girl in the class passed away last summer. I was pretty blown away by all of this and got home and saw that a friend had lost a friend. She was an ag broadcaster and died yesterday morning in a crash near Springfield, Ohio. She had interviewed me before and I knew her and her husband very well. Her husband DJ'd one of our weddings and has spoken to my ag students when I was teaching.

I knew right then I was right where God wanted me and reminded of all my blessings and my gratitude for everything and everyone.

This mornings ag news is good. We have sunshine once more although it will be days if we can do much. Farmers are meeting with their crop insurance agents to calculate preventive planting payments versus what if we do get to plant.

"Gasoline stations have been busy, with prices falling in line with crude oil. You would have thought there was a fire sale going on. Gasoline prices over the $4.00/gallon mark have been easing back towards the $3.70 mark. By the way, we hear that it is ride -your-bike to work today in Washington, DC. Can you imagine what a nation-
wide initiative would due to crude oil stocks? Speaking of crude oil and other
commodities - they are higher today keying in on what may become comfort levels
of trade around $1500 / oz for gold and $100 /barrel crude.

Ag prices continue to follow the ups and downs of macros. But the investor flow
may be ready to come back to corn, wheat, and beans as this late season and
flooding issues are certainly affecting the total amount of acreage the market has
going for it. For now, the sudden upturn in corn prices seems to suggest that 1-3
million unplanted acres of corn is at stake. Our starting point via the planting
intentions report was 92.2 million acres. One group released an 89.5 million acres
(corn), but the uncertainty is certainly going to suggest that corn breaks may be for the owning right now, particularly as we have not yet even hit the pollination period when prices can really heat up along with summer temperatures.

There are more storms in the forecast for St. Louis, and open weather does not
look as though it is going to happen. South American farmers took advantage of
higher soybean prices yesterday, but the US farmer is unimpressed.....and busy.
Firm old -crop,new crop soybean and corn spreads remain the key feature posting
new highs. In other featured spreads - buy oil, sell meal also seems to be back
in vogue.

Calls this morning are going to start on the defensive, following through with the
start of what was a good day of profit-taking, which is suggestive of price congestion
on a typical Friday:

beans: 4-6 lower
meal: 1.80-2.00 lower
oil: mixed/lower
corn: 2-3 lower
wheat: 5-7 lower

Look for possible price congestion today and two-sided trade."

I thought this was pretty good. Two sided trade, now that's a good one. It's not a fair trade unless it's two sided and we agree in the middle but I think they are talking about buyers and sellers.

With 3 million acres under water and millions of acres that can't be planted or will be planted late, I say Katy Bar The Door on prices. People are already hoarding food and 100 watt light bulbs that won't be made any more.

It is exciting times, no doubt and I plan to write this tomorrow and Sunday unlike that kook is predicting the world ends tomorrow.

The picture is corn a year ago today.


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