Wednesday, June 1, 2011
In my scouting today I saw a lot of vacant fields with no activity. I would think everyone could be planting now and they aren't. Fields look like our garden this year, there is nothing there, unlike last year at this time.
I saw two anhydrous rigs and several farmers notilling soybeans but very little corn planting. I wonder if there is going to be a huge amount of PP or Preventive Planting acres taken in my region and maybe even in Ohio and other unplanted states?
"US planting progress was released yesterday (one day late given the holiday).
Soybean plantings at 51% were well below the expected average of 59%
trade estimates. Corn plantings were at 86%, also behind. The states lagging
progress the most in order are 1. Ohio and 2. Indiana. The Ohio late start is in
fact a record with beans only 7% planted vs. 75% average. NASS also released
their first corn crop ratings at 63% good/excellent vs. 76% last year. Ratings for
corn were lowest in Ohio (28% good/excellent), and Indiana (44% good /excellent).
As we generally are at the upper end of the trading ranges weather moving forward
counts. At the present time, it appears that the farmer is going to get that big break with rain amounts dwindling down and heat moving up - in some cases way up.
Summer temperatures have arrived even though we are wrapping up the springtime.
If that continues the next discussion will become more about shallow roots.
For today we begin lower with a better forecast in general. The progress numbers
are factored into today's prices. Yesterday the wheat market was the star performer
falling sharply in response to the end of the grain ban by Russia announced on
Saturday. The ban did have an impact on Russia's internal domestic prices which
firmed sharply after the ban was lifted. So we could begin to see talk regarding export restrictions, but for now they are theoretical."
We begin the trading day on a small market setback led once again by wheat futures. The miller is offering about what he was at planting time after a nearl two dollar drop in wheat prices.
According to newsiwrew, there are rumors that prevent-plant dates could be
extended giving farmers another 10 days or 2 weeks and still have full insurance
coverage. Underline RUMORS."
If the rumor is true it looks to me it won't make a dime's worth of difference. I don't think farmers are going to plant much corn in Ohio this year.
Farmers hate wet corn and that $6.01 insurance guarantee was enough to prevent a lot of acres to be planted this late.