Yesterday showed the extreme volatility in agriculture and the world. Any little thing can disrupt a plan or a market and yesterday that happened. The buzz since the USDA Quarterly Stocks report came out is shy of trader thinking so the new 22 hour CME trading schedule got stacked with buyers and sellers. There were more buyers than sellers yesterday so local corn closed up 40 cents per bushel and so did soybeans. Fall soybeans went up 50 cents per bushel.
It affected me as I had in some bids that were almost struck quicker than I could react to. They are good bids now but may not be in a week. They are a dollar above the low so far so I don't feel bad about them but it looks like the crop condition and weather forecast is really going to make this market run.
We had a cool reprieve last night with the windows open and 55 degrees when I got up this morning. You could see the sun hitting the new tassles of the corn below. That is quite unusual in the month of June but everything has been a month ahead this spring and summer follows that pace.
The big question in my mind today is how low can our final average yield go? Can we go to 100 bushel corn nationally? I have friends who think so but past data doesn't indicate that. Our national corn yield was 70 bushels in 1970 but we were raising about double that here. It has trended up to the record crops of 166 bushels in recent years but a trendline of 150 should be quite obtainable. Is 100 bushel national yield average even possible on 95 million acres this year?
No one knows, but we are about to find out! Every day we endure this hot weather with no rain lowers the US corn potential. The buyers and sellers will have to make their best guess. 98 degrees Thursday will get everyone's attention here when it is much worse in Kansas or Southern Illinois.
Yesterday's report was a big market mover. For me, what is my final yield going to be and what price am I willing to take for it? How do I achieve that?
On a personal note, congratulations to Will and Becky on their baby girl! That makes 7 girls and 4 boys. Now isn't that just monkey fun?
Better markets and better weather to you,
Ed Winkle
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