Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Flip Side

On the flip side of yesterday's post and the day before, I read this analysis that is a whole lot more tolerable than the gloom and doom forecasts.

By Linda H. Smith

As the U.S. economy emerges from recession, prospects for a rural rebound in 2010 are rising, says Jason Henderson, vice president and Omaha branch executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. “By the third quarter of 2009, economic gains in developing countries, coupled with a weaker dollar, strengthened U.S. ag export activity. Signs of a national recovery in the second half of the year included a modest rise in U.S. food expenditures. Meanwhile, stronger crude oil prices helped lift ethanol prices, profits and production.”

In March, housing construction posted its first year-over-year increase (1.6%) since June 2006, reports Ann Duignan of J.P. Morgan. Nonresidential construction continued to decline, on the other hand. “However, construction machinery orders were up 271% in March year over year construction machinery shipments posted their first year-over-year increase since November 2008—up 4%.”

April housing starts, announced today, were up 5.8% from March and 41% above a year earlier. Building permits were 16% above last year, the government announced.

The improving economy, combined with increased exports, should support farm income and profits and lead to improvements in the rural economy, these analysts say.
For More Information
Housing report

Henderson analysis

What do you think? There are still those who think differently. I take it all as food for thought and am not willing to take a position either way but trying to be ready for the worst and take advantage for the best.

I guess that is life, isn't it?


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