Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Election Day!

Thank God it is finally here, election day!  I do thank God for America and for our freedom that was earned and is preserved by our military.  I can never say thanks enough but I can vote for the principles this country was founded on.  Whenever I see a soldier or a story about one, I know I have to be informed and I know I have to vote.

Neighbor Darrell called last night howling and laughing.  He asked if I got tired of Rosenberger?  I knew right then he watched me cut down his sign.  He said I saw you give it a good kick, too and just howled out loud.  You should really hear the man laugh.  I knew then he saw me trip over the dang thing, nearly fell on top of it but in reality I tripped over it.  I never told him the whole story.

I said yes I got tired of him and voted for Peter Pence.  I really had him howling by this time.  Then I said just look at him, then look at Peter Pence, a handsome family man.  I really had him them because we talk about how looks are deceiving.  He knows how I voted and he knows what I believe in.  I think all of you do, too.

What are farmers doing on election day?  Working, of course!  There is quite a bit of corn to shell around here yet and a few bean fields to harvest.  I just saw a big sprayer go by the office window.  It's a great time to kill weeds for next year and there have been many posts on the subject on Crop Talk this fall.

I leave you with my opening market comments I receive most mornings:

"GOOD MORNING,
Happy election day. After tomorrow, no more annoying phone calls.  Yard signs will be put away by the loser, maybe the winner. Who knows.

At any rate, the Dow performed admirably yesterday choosing to settleon the plus side of the market after a down-day of trade. If uncertainties back the major trend at hand, looks like the Dow may have more upside.

Ags are following a higher path this morning after putting in an anemic performance in the last weeks as traders even up. Among the knowns for Ags - continuing low export trade for corn, and fairly robust trade for beans. The higher soybean estimate for production and yield on

November 9th remain problematic for the bull trader. How high will the USDA go? And if the market for soybeans breaks heavily, will it be purchased because demand is so good? The demand for beans does remain robust, so think the answer to that questionwill be yes. But we can lower trading ranges a touch on a much more bearish surprise than the bean market expects. Once again, the USDA report seems to be all about soybeans. And so the markets have been busily defining our trading ranges, and not bothering to deviate from them too much.

As the market fell to the lower end of the ranges, good pricing was noted.  Crop progress was released yesterday with corn harvest 95% complete and beans at 93% complete. Brazil's planting progress (according to their own estimate by Celeres) is 37% complete for beans, behind last year at 48% due to dryness. Argentina did dry out a bit this week, but rains are going to return, a problem that needs to be watched closely as they are running well over 100% of normal.

After being pressured towards the bottom of the trading ranges (except for wheat) the markets in the morning e-trade are higher across the board:
beans: 10-12 higher
meal: 2.80-2.90 higher
oil: 32 higher
corn: 4 higher
wheat: 8 higher

Theme of the day - light turnover as traders watch for election results and square positions into the Friday report.

Election day tendencies of the Dow: when a tight race occurs, the Dow has historically faltered in the next weeks. When a landslide occurs, the Dow tends to rally. Guess overwhelming consensus makes the market
a happy place."

Ed

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