Demand side
· Asia has more people than the rest of the world combined. This population continues to grow and their income is also growing quickly as they become economic powers.
· China has recently passed the US as the world’s biggest economy.
· Demand comes from an increase in population and an increase in income – both are happening in Asia.
· We (farmers globally) will need to produce more food in the next 50 years than the total food that has been produced over the last 7,000 years.
· Global need (demand) will be 9 million more tons of beef over the next 10 years.
· China has 300 million people in their middle class (equals total US population) and this will double by 2022.
· Sheer numbers – the wealthiest 10% of China’s population represents more people than the total population of Japan
· The Middle Class is globally 2 billion people today and is expected to be 4.9 billion by 2030.
· The demand for beef is not only steady but growing. As people move into the middle class, they want to buy beef.
· China’s own beef production has kept up with demand in the past. This is no longer the case.
o Because of income growth, demand for beef is up 42% in China over the last 2 years.
o Chinese consumers want to see white fat beef, not yellow fat beef, so they want grain fed and not grass fed beef.
o China’s corn policy has their corn prices at $9.70/bushel to encourage their farmers to plant corn – this is forcing their own livestock producers to cut back production.
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I thought this was pretty interesting stuff, hope you enjoy it! My livestock friends have been quietly and modestly happy because they quickly remember how it was before $8 corn. Cost of production is still an issue and we haven't seen people rush in to produce much more yet.
Ed
Thanks to the biotech companies, we'll need only 9 more cows to feed the increased world population. 9 one-million-tons cows...
ReplyDeleteWith these levels of production, we'll need to make it easier and more common to spread manure, to make it a useful fertilizer instead of a waste product. Liquid manure will need to be mixed with vegetal matter and composted too, instead of ending up in the ground water, lakes and oceans.
Another solution is to move the poorest class straight to the upper class, skipping the middle class altogether: Upper class eats less beef, or more pastured beef, or no meat and animal product at all... ;)